Ian Bremer: several global risks in 2022

Original title: Ian Bremer: several global risks in 2022
Reference News reported on January 7 that the US time weekly website published an article on January 3, analyzing several major global risks in 2022. The author is Ian Bremer, and the full text is excerpted as follows:
The possibility of large-scale international conflicts in 2022 is reduced, but the leadership and collaboration required to deal with emerging crises may also be weakened. Novel coronavirus pneumonia, climate change and a series of geopolitical crises in the region are bad news.
The haze of the new crown remains
We've had enough of the epidemic, but it's not over with us. In developed countries, the end is near. The novel coronavirus pneumonia strains with very strong infection have been well vaccinated, and these populations have been supported by the highly effective mRNA vaccine and the new crown pneumonia therapy. That is why the pandemic is likely to become endemic in developed industrial economies in the first half of this year. However, even in developed countries, the impact of the pandemic on the economy will continue this year due to the interruption of supply chains and continued inflation.
The demand for booster shots in rich countries will hinder the popularization of effective vaccines. The new epidemic will slow economic growth in emerging markets and put poorer governments on more debt.
Through all these novel coronavirus pneumonia will continue to bring instability to the political and economic sectors.
The world of technology pole
The world's largest technology company determines a lot of what we see and hear. They determine our economic opportunities and affect our views on important issues. Policy makers in the European Union and the United States will tighten technology regulation this year, but they will not limit the investment ability of these companies in the digital field, where they are still the main designers, participants and executives.
Technology giants are not yet able to effectively manage digital space or the tools they are creating. False information will continue to undermine public confidence, especially in the United States. Tensions between the United States and Europe will intensify as technology companies and the government fail to reach an agreement on how to protect data privacy, ensure network security, and the safe and ethical use of artificial intelligence.
U.S.A
In November, Republicans will almost certainly regain majority control of the house of Representatives (and perhaps the Senate). If so, Democrats will see Republican control as an illegal result of suppressing the voter movement, and Republicans will see victory as further evidence of electoral fraud in 2020. Impeachment of Biden will become an important agenda of the Republican Party, and the public's trust in the American political system will be more affected.
What is more important is what the mid-term election means for the 2024 presidential election. Donald Trump has indicated that he will run for president in 2024. If he is defeated by Democrats, the Republican controlled house of Representatives may vote to overturn the state election results, but the Democratic controlled Senate will limit its impact.
If the Republicans win the house and Senate elections in November this year, if trump challenges the possible failure in 2024, if state officials submit alternative certificates and the Republican majority Congress accepts them, the US presidential election in 2024 may collapse, leading to a constitutional crisis.
Russia
The build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has triggered a broader confrontation on the European security architecture. President Putin's current demand is that NATO make major security concessions and promise not to expand eastward. However, the two sides are unlikely to reach a major agreement. The close encounters between NATO and Russian warships and military aircraft will become more frequent and dangerous, thus increasing the possibility of accidents.
Iran
Iran's nuclear program is advancing rapidly. With diplomatic efforts deadlocked, the Biden administration has little choice. Israel will increasingly take the situation in its own hands, which increases the possibility of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. These pressures will collide with each other this year, making oil prices and countries in the region tremble, and increasing the risk of conflict.
Environmental protection takes two steps forward and one step backward
In 2022, continued upward pressure on energy costs will force governments to support policies that can reduce energy costs but delay climate action. Rising energy prices will make voters and elected officials more anxious, despite the increasing climate pressure on the government.
Uncontrolled land
As Washington and Beijing are busy worrying about domestic affairs, and the European Union, Britain and Japan are unable to fill the ensuing power vacuum, many countries and regions will fall into uncontrollable crises. In Afghanistan, it is difficult for the inexperienced Taliban to prevent the "Islamic state" organization from pulling foreign militants into large areas outside the law. In the Sahel region, where governance is weak, the risk of terrorism remains high. The civil war in Yemen and Ethiopia will create new risks. Haiti faces the risk of a worsening refugee crisis.
The company lost the cultural war
The world's largest brands are looking forward to record profitsHowever, it will be more difficult to deal with political issues this year. Consumers and employees empowered by "de Culture" and facilitated by social media will put new demands on multinational corporations and the governments that manage them. Multinational corporations will spend more time and money to avoid environmental, cultural, social and political minefields.
turkey
President Erdogan, who is trying to reverse the sharp decline in poll support before the 2023 general election, will drag Turkey's economy and international status to a new low in 2022. At present, unemployment and inflation remain high, the lira is weaker and more volatile, but Erdogan rejects orthodox economic management. If there is an unlikely early election in 2022, all these risks will intensify.